Here is what will happen if the American Health Care Act (AHCA) becomes law:
| Congressional District | Non-Elderly with Pre-Existing Conditions | Non-Elderly Coverage Loss by 2026 | Potential Job Loss by 2022 |
| Peter King NY 2nd | 314,600 | Medicaid alone: 18,100 Total Coverage Lost: 72,300 | 594 |
| John Faso – NY 19th | 294,000 | Medicaid alone: 25,300 Total Coverage Lost: 65,800 | 2,051 |
| Elise Stefanik – NY 21st | 295,300 | Medicaid alone: 28,400 Total Coverage Lost: 64,400 | 2,678 |
| Claudia Tenney – NY 22nd | 289,000 | Medicaid alone: 28,600 Total Coverage Lost: 63,900 | 2,966 |
| Chris Collins – NY 27th | 305,600 | Medicaid alone: 18,700 Total Coverage Lost: 58,000 | 1,528 |
Notes:
- The Medicaid coverage loss numbers include both the impact of per capita caps and roll back of Medicaid expansion. States that have not expanded Medicaid as of yet, the coverage loss for Medicaid expansion is calculated as people who would lose coverage had the state decided to expand Medicaid.
- Total coverage loss numbers include loss from Medicaid, employer-sponsored insurance, and exchanges and other coverage.
- Job loss estimates are based on if Congress enacts AHCA, while holding all other economic factors constant. Essentially, these numbers say “If the AHCA becomes law, there will be X number of fewer jobs in Representative Y’s district by 2022 relative to if the ACA remained in place.”
